A Fly in the Ointment: How to Predict Environmentally Driven Phenology of an Organism That Partially Regulates Its Microclimate

Phenological models representing physiological and behavioral processes of organisms are used to study, predict, optimize management ecological subsystems. One application phenological is the prediction temporal intervals associated with measurable development arthropods, for purpose estimating future time points interest such as emergence adults, or past arrival ovipositing females new resources. The second these applications particular use in conduct forensic investigations, where a suspicious death must be estimated on basis evidence, including arthropods size/age, found at scene. Because longstanding practice using necrophagous insects estimate death, standardized data methods exist. We noticed pattern entomological validation studies: bias values model parameter improved fit data, reason that inconsistent how this interpreted. hypothesized biased estimates threshold parameter, lowest temperature which insect expected occur, result models’ accounting thermoregulation but way results low predictive reliability narrowed applicability involving estimates. explored more realistic incorporate into phenology entomology context, doing so robust phenology.